Trump guilty on 34 counts: can the USA still call itself a bastion of democracy?

In a landmark criminal trial, former US President Donald Trump was found guilty of business fraud on all 34 counts in his hush money trial.

The prosecution found the way in which these payments to former porn actress Stormy Daniel were recorded (as legal expenses) amounted to election fraud.

The historic trial marks the first time a former or serving US president has been convicted of a crime, and Donald Trump remains a presidential hopeful, with plans to represent the Republican party for a second time.

The guilty verdict will not impede his ability to run for president in November, but he may still be sent to prison when he is sentenced on 11 July.

Despite the cult of Trump, the tide is turning internationally, says Professor Inderjeet Parmar

Professor Inderjeet Parmar is a Professor of International Politics at City, University of London and Associate Dean for Research in the School of Policy & Global Affairs.

A foreign policy analyst, research scholar and author with expertise in US politics, he believes Trump's dismissals of the guilty verdict shine a light on the ways in which the image of the US democracy is in jeopardy.

He said:

Trump’s guilty verdict, and the ensuing vitriol from Trump and his supporters, suggests that the US as an upholder of law and promoter of democracy is in jeopardy.

The tide is turning globally; European allies are feeling increasingly alienated with US support for Israel’s war on Gaza.

The US is still the world’s pivotal state. We are in the age of the polycrisis: the convergence of global crises, whether they are economic, financial, health-related and cultural. The heart of the polycrisis is centred in the US, which is the world’s lone superpower.

The US is committed on so many global fronts. US democracy has been hollowed out by the power of Big Money and the neglect of its own social fabric in order to spend so much on trillion-dollar military budgets and deployments.

There is a cult of Trump. It seems nothing will turn Trump's voter base or mega donors away. He seems like a Teflon leader, with a political Midas touch.

The political and moral crisis in America is very deep. If Trump were removed, a large part of the voter base and mega donors would remain behind another far right Republican.

Trump’s guilty ruling is likely to exacerbate the intense political polarisation in the United States. Trump is already accusing the Biden of orchestrating a politically motivated form of “lawfare” against his candidacy.

There is nothing in the Constitution that prohibits a convicted felon from running for president. Trump will almost certainly still be the Republican nominee.

The court of public opinion will be more important than a court of law in determining who the next president of the United States will be.

The guilty verdict likely won’t change many votes. There are relatively few swing votes up for grabs, as most Americans have already made their minds up about the candidates.

The election is likely to be extremely close. The margin of victory in November is going to be wafer thin – possibly in the tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states. That means that even small shifts of opinion can have a huge significance in shaping the outcome of the election.

Campaigns in which the incumbent is running for re-election are usually framed as a referendum on the sitting president. With Biden’s approval ratings being so low, that could spell disaster.

Trump’s base is remarkably loyal. His support increased after he was criminally indicted last year, and Trump has used the trial in New York as a tool to mobilise support from those who agree with his view that the charges against him are politically motivated. This verdict is unlikely to shift the views of die-hard Trump voters.

If the leader of the world’s most powerful state were a convicted felon, it would surely shatter once and for all the image of the United States as a “city on a hill” that provides a shining example of benign liberal democratic principles.

The traditional rules-based order remains in deep crisis. Trump’s election back in 2016 was a sledgehammer blow to the credibility of the US “brand.”

The Biden administration has since worked hard to re-commit to traditional alliances amid a world of democratic backsliding and the rise of authoritarianism.

The US as a rules-based democratic country seems to be on the ballot this November.